Institutional 5-Minute BTC Binary Options Research & Execution Harness.
Autonomous client software engineered for Polymarket CLOB. Features Three-Stage dynamic positioning, time-decay-aware risk liquidation, and continuous SHA-256 cryptographic audit chaining.
Experience the Three-Stage Positioning Engine.
Simulate how the harness handles dynamic time-decay sensitivity, momentum validation, and active liquidation across an entire 5-minute candle.
Filters opening spread noise when remaining variance is at peak. Enforces confidence $C(t) \ge 0.50$ and statistical edge $\ge 4\%$ before committing dry powder.
βspot(τ) = 1400.0 / √(τ / 300)Sensitivity multiplier scales from 1400.0x at τ=300s to 3130.5x at τ=60s!
The Three-Stage Positioning Architecture.
Traditional binary options bots hold naive static bets to expiry. This Three-Stage Engine continuously adapts to time-decay and microstructure drift.
Inception Gate
Filters opening candle noise when variance is highest. Enforces ex-ante conviction gates before committing institutional capital.
- • Gate: Confidence ≥ 0.50 & Edge ≥ 4%
- • Noise Filter: Directional spread check
- • Sizing: 50% fractional Kelly tranche
- • Fallback: NOOP (PASS) defers to Stage 1
Validation & Salvage Stop
Evaluates mid-flight realization after 40% of the duration has elapsed. Confirms trend momentum or cuts losers early.
- • Momentum: Scale up tranche if trend aligns
- • Salvage Stop: Dump to bids if momentum flips
- • Capital Preservation: Salvages 40–70% funds
- • Late Entry: Enters if Stage 0 passed on noise
Endgame Snipe & Take-Profit
Eliminates terminal pin-risk and oracle slippage in the final 60 seconds before settlement resolution.
- • Profit Lock: Sell if Bid ≥ $0.88 or P ≥ 0.90
- • Asymmetric Snipe: Buy opposite if < $0.16
- • Pin-Risk Immunity: Pre-resolution exit
- • Settlement: Hold only if safety threshold met
Polymarket Orderbook & Dynamic Sensitivity.
Visualizing tick-by-tick Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) queue depth, real-time bid/ask spreads, and the time-decay sensitivity curve.
Test-1 Production Benchmark Performance.
Outcomes across 220 consecutive 5-minute cycles on live Polymarket CLOB ticks comparing Three-Stage active risk mitigation against naive hold-to-expiration.
Zero-Lookahead SHA-256 Audit Chain.
Every prediction, order fill, and resolution is cryptographically chained via SHA-256 hashes. Test what happens if someone attempts ex-post tampering.
Interactive Terminal & Harness CLI.
Run and inspect the CLI subcommands live. Click preset actions or type in the interactive prompt below.
Complete Technical Documentation Suite.
Governed by the Diátaxis documentation architecture. Zero drift, boundary-first contracts, and verified operational runbooks.
Quickstart Guide
Step-by-step introduction for new leaseholders to clone, configure API tokens, and execute their first simulated 5-minute cycle in under 3 minutes.
Operational Runbooks
Practical guides for operating continuous execution, setting circuit breaker limits, verifying audit chains, and deploying live to Polygon.
Specifications & Schemas
Deterministic technical descriptions of CLI flags, configuration variables, DuckDB audit schemas, and Polymarket REST/WebSocket API contracts.
Architecture & Theory
Deep dives into Three-Stage mathematical formulation, dynamic spot beta decay $\beta(\tau)$, zero-lookahead audit chaining, and lease governance.
Microstructure & Academic Citations.
This harness architecture directly operationalizes empirical literature on favorite-longshot bias, pin-risk adverse selection, and prediction market microstructure.
The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets
The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Evidence from Polymarket
Adverse Selection in Prediction Markets: Evidence from Kalshi
The Wisdom of Crowds in Markets: Crowd Behavior in Betting & Prediction Markets
Deploy Your 5-Minute BTC Harness Lease.
Available for institutional researchers, quantitative trading desks, and prediction market microstructure analysts.